TUC Economic Quarterly 6

This quarterly TUC report provides an analysis of UK economic and labour market developments over recent months, and includes  a spotlight feature on the composition of current economic growth.

Summary

• There is growing evidence that the recent revival in growth is flagging.
• Overall, the recovery has been weak, and historic imbalances have not been repaired.
• Household and corporate savings have been reduced over the past years, and deleveraging may have stalled. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit is at an all-time high.
• Public sector deficit reduction has slowed, as tax revenues falter.
• For the seventh quarter in a row employment has risen and unemployment has fallen. However, both of these quarterly falls were  the lowest for around the last 12 months.
• Concerns remain around youth unemployment, underemployment and low wage growth.
• In the last couple of months we have finally witnessed some real wage growth. But this has mainly been driven by historic lows in inflation; while oil prices may lead to short term gains, the threat of deflation is real.